The NFL Conference Championship matches have arrived, with both starting on Sunday. Fifth-ranked Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face top-ranked Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game, after which the Buffalo Bills, ranked # 2, will play the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship. Winners advance to Super Bowl LV on February 7th.
We preview both title games. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the keys to the games, a bold prediction for every match and the choice of the end result.
Additionally, ESPN’s stats and information provide each game’s must-know stats Soccer Strength Index (FPI) enters into numbers with matching rating (on a scale from 1 to 100) and game drop. Dave Berman of ESPN Chalk parses useful nuggets and NFL analyst Matt Bowen points out a major match to watch as well. It’s all here to help you prepare for an exciting NFL playoff weekend.
Jump into the match:
Terabyte-gigabyte | BUF-KC
3:05 pm ET | Fox
Conformity rating: 96.3 | Spread: GB-3 (51.5)
What to watch: If there’s anything to be worried about in Matt LaFleur’s hugely successful two-year career as Lakers coach, it may be a slow step in coping. When these teams met at Week 6, Bucs played area coverage at 61% of the quarterback Aaron RodgersRodgers was his only game of multiple blockages this season. All in all, the more teams in the region have played against Rodgers over the past two years, the better they have performed. LaFleur and attack coordinator Nathaniel Hackett know what’s coming in terms of coverage and how they plan so will determine their level of success against the tough Tampa Bay defense. Rob Dimofsky
Bold prediction: Pirate Quarterback Tom BradyThe game-winning landing card will not be thrown out to wide receiver devices Mike EvansAnd the Chris GoodwinAnd the Antonio Brown or Scotty Miller, Narrow ends Rob Gronkowski or Cameron Pratt, Or jogging Ronald Jones II or Leonard Fortnite. Nope, it will go to a wide receiver Tyler Johnson. A fifth-round beginner from Minnesota only had one catch last week against the Saints, but that 15-yard hook on the ocean was brilliant. The only reason we can’t talk about Johnson any more is because of the depth scheme he’s buried on. He has a knack for making tough shots in high-pressure situations, and he’ll do it again on Sunday. – Gina Lynn
Stat to find out: The two biggest factors in Brady’s performance throughout the season were pressure and header. In 13 wins over the course of the season (including playoffs), he averaged 1.1 bags per game, saw pressure on 14% of his drop points and scored 82 QBR. But in five losses, the sacks jumped to 2.2 per game, their compression ratio increased to 27% and nearly a quarter of the QR was split in half (44). And as for deep ball, keep this in mind: on passes thrown over 20 yards over an 18-game span, he hit 45% on 11 touchdowns without interceptions in wins, but only 21% for one score and five picks in losses. .
Bowen Matching Key: How Tampa Bay will keep its broadband receiver Davant Adams under control? It will start at Cover Melee Line 1, with Backaners Corner Carlton Davis He tries to use his height and physical characteristics to impede Adams’s release. If he can’t, Davis ‘lack of recovery speed versus Adams’ sudden ability to detach would pose trouble for the Bucs. Read more.
What is at stake: The Buccaneers win would mark the first non-division champion to reach the Super Bowl since the 2010 Packers. It would also bring Brady’s tenth appearance in the Super Bowl, over three decades. However, Rodgers has only played in one Super Bowl. After losing his last three matches in the NFC Championship and moving to 1-3 during his career in this game, Rodgers tries to avoid becoming the third QB player to have less than two wins and more than three losses in conference title matches (Ken Stapler) and Donovan McNabb both 1- 4).
Bet block: Brady is 9-4 straight and 6-7 against spread in conference championship matches. Fewer than 8-5 in those matches, including 7-2 in the past nine. Read more.
Dominic Foxworth expects who will have a bigger day at the NFC Championship game between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.
Lean Choice: Pirates 26, packets 24
Dimovsky’s Choice: Beams 31, Pirates 17
Predicting FPI: GB 53.2% (average of 1.1 points)
Home crowd: Last week’s playoff match at Lampo Field saw 8,456 people. With more guests and coaches from both teams likely to be on the field this week, attendance at the stadium is expected to be from 8500-9000. That’s roughly 10-11% of Lambo’s 81441 capacity.
It should read conformance: Finally, Rodgers v. Brady: Inside the playoff game 13 years ago … “a lot of information” is never enough for the controlling attack on the Packers … WR Brown (knee) to be the match-time call for Bucs … Coronation achievement: Receivers proven Packers it’s worth once and for all … Bucs have beaten Rodgers before, but does the formula change? Rodgers feels no extra pressure, and says his future is a “beautiful mystery”
6:40 pm ET | CBS
Conformity rating: 92.3 | Spread: KC -3 (53.5)
What to watch: Will Chiefs Quarterback Patrick Mahomes (Concussion Protocol) play? That is the question on everyone’s mind, with backup Chad Henny Scheduled to start if Mahomes exits. But with or without Mahomes, the Chiefs’ running game will be something to watch. Kansas City surged to a season high of 245 yards against Buffalo in Week 6, when the Bills played their safety deep in multiple shots and were intent on disallowing Terek Hill And the other receivers beat them deeply. They will certainly change strategies this time, but at what cost? The Chiefs only had one pass over 22 yards against the Bills the last time. Could billing effectively slow the Chiefs’ running game while still limiting the number of times he played big passes? Adam Techer
Bold prediction: Quarterback bills Josh Allen It will exceed 350 yards pass and a wide receiver Stephon Digges He would turn in his third game in a row with a 100-yard reception and touchdown. And even more daring, not only will the Bills win, but also beat the Chiefs in their own backyard, achieving their first Buffalo ticket to the Super Bowl since the 1993 season. – Marcel Louis Jacques
Stat to find out: The bills have slipped past 73% of the time this post-season, and only one team made it to the conference title game that was going through more than once – the 2015 Patriots (83%), who lost the AFC Championship match that season. Buffalo won only 32 yards last week – the fourth lowest number ever in a playoff match, according to Elias Sports Bureau – and Allen is currently leading the team on the ground 57 yards on two games after the season. The Bills averaged 64.0 accelerating yards per game this season, which is fewer than all but one team to reach the Super Bowl; Average 1999 Rams 41.0.
Bowen Matching Key: Watch the bosses defense to show pressure and spin late to play Cover 2 safely Tyrant Matteo As a middle hole cannon. This allows Chiefs to have Allen run after the kidnapper with the late move, but it also allows Kansas City to play area cover with Matthew lying in the grass as a midfield presence, in a position to rob a breaker. . Read more.
What is at stake: The Chiefs aim to become the first recurring Super Bowl champion since the 2003-2004 Patriots, the longest stretch in NFL history without a recurring champion. They are the twelfth title holders in the Super Bowl to host the conference tournament, and the previous 11 teams have gone 10-1 (losing only in 1990 49). Meanwhile, the Bills are trying to return to the Super Bowl for the first time since losing four times in a row during the 1990-1993 seasons. They have not won a title of any kind since the 1965 AFL Championship, and their 0-4 Super Bowls record tied with the Vikings in most appearances without a win.
Bet block: Chiefs are 1-8 against the point difference in their last nine matches (8-1 directly), and they are 0-5 against the point difference in the last five games at home. Read more.
Louis Jack’s Choice: 31 bills, 28 heads
Teicher’s choice: 27 heads, 22 bills
Predicting FPI: KC 58.3% (average of 2.7 points)
Damian Woody sees Josh Allen be compared to the likes of Patrick Mahoms, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady if he could lead Beals to the Super Bowl.
Home crowd: Presidents have maintained their attendance numbers at or below 22% at Arrowhead Stadium (76,416 gross capacity) this season, with the largest crowd attending last week against Browns (16730). Expect a similar record in the AFC Championship match.
It should read conformance: The bills could justify trading Mahomes’ choice by reaching the Super Bowl … For Chiefs’ Reid, ‘every fall is a throw down,’ even in fourth and third places … how dangerous is Davis’ ankle injury? The biggest question heading to the AFC title match … Mahomes trains with limited capacity, stays in the concussion protocol